Demand Analytics
Understanding your clinical trial forecast: patient demand, production planning, inventory, risk assessment, and cost analysis.
Overview
After completing the trial wizard, Prognosis generates comprehensive analytics to help you plan and manage your supply chain. This guide explains each analytics view and how to use the insights for decision-making.
For details on individual tabs, see Supply & Demand Analysis and Analytics Tabs.
Tip: Hover over the information icons throughout the analytics dashboards for detailed explanations of each metric.
Summary Dashboard
The Summary view provides a high-level overview of your trial's supply requirements.
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Key Metrics
| Metric | Description |
|---|---|
| Total Patients | Total patients across all countries and treatment arms |
| Total Kits Required | Aggregate kit demand for the entire trial |
| Production Runs | Number of recommended manufacturing batches |
| Countries | Number of countries in the trial |
| Trial Duration | Time from first patient in to last patient visit |
Quick Insights
The summary dashboard highlights:
- Demand peaks -- Months with highest kit requirements
- Critical timelines -- Key dates for production and shipping
- Overall risk status -- High-level indicator of supply health
Production Planning
The Production view shows recommended manufacturing runs to meet forecasted demand.
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Fixed Lot Configurations
If you entered pre-planned lots in the wizard, they appear at the top:
- Lot ID -- Your reference for the planned batch
- Kit -- Which kit is being produced
- Quantity -- Number of kits in the batch
- Production Date -- When manufacturing begins
- Arrival Date -- When kits reach the depot
Recommended Lot Configurations
Below your fixed lots, Prognosis recommends additional production runs:
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Recommended Start Date | When production should begin |
| Recommended Quantity | Number of kits to produce |
| Target Arrival Date | When kits need to arrive at depot |
| Supply Window | The demand period this run covers |
Understanding Recommendations
Prognosis calculates production recommendations by:
- Projecting demand -- When will patients need kits?
- Working backwards -- Accounting for shipping and production lead times
- Considering constraints -- Shelf life, depot network, existing inventory
- Optimizing timing -- Balancing production efficiency with supply security
Production Timeline
The visual timeline shows:
- When each production run should start
- Shipping periods to each destination
- When kits arrive and become available
- Expiry dates for each batch
Sites
The Sites view breaks down requirements by clinical site.
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Site Breakdown
For each country, see:
- Number of Sites -- Clinical sites participating
- Patients per Site -- Average enrollment per site
- Kits per Site -- Kit requirements by site
Site Seeding
The Sites view shows initial inventory requirements:
- Seed Quantity per Site -- Kits needed before first patient
- Total Seeding -- Aggregate seeding across all sites
- Seeding Replenishment -- When seed stock needs refreshing due to expiry
Patients
The Patients view details enrollment projections by country and treatment arm.
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Country-Level View
For each country:
| Metric | Description |
|---|---|
| First Patient In | Enrollment start date |
| Last Patient In | Enrollment end date |
| Total Patients | Target enrollment |
| By Treatment Arm | Patient distribution across arms |
Enrollment Curve
The visual enrollment chart shows:
- Projected enrollment -- How patients accumulate over time
- Monthly breakdown -- New patients enrolling each month
- Cumulative total -- Running total of enrolled patients
For In-Progress Trials
If you have entered actual enrollment data:
- Actual enrollment -- Confirmed patient numbers (solid line)
- Projected enrollment -- Forecast for remaining patients (dashed line)
- Variance -- Difference between actual and originally projected
Inventory
The Inventory view shows stock level projections across your entire depot network.
Inventory Chart
The visual chart displays:
- Stock levels -- Inventory at each depot over time
- Reorder points -- When new production should arrive
- Depletion curves -- How inventory is consumed
- Replenishment -- When and how stock is replenished
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Healthy | Adequate stock to meet demand |
| Watch | Inventory approaching minimum levels |
| Critical | Risk of stockout without intervention |
Lead Times
The Lead Times view visualizes the supply chain timeline for each production run.
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Timeline Components
For each production run, see:
- Production Start -- When manufacturing begins
- Production End -- When kits are ready for release
- Shipping Start -- When kits leave the depot
- Country Arrival -- When kits arrive at each destination
Country-Specific Lead Times
The view breaks down lead times for each country:
- Central to Local Depot -- Time for inter-depot transfer
- Local Depot to Sites -- Time to reach clinical sites
- Total Lead Time -- End-to-end time from production to availability
Risk Assessment
The Risk view identifies potential supply shortfalls and their causes.
Risk Categories
Prognosis categorizes supply risks by root cause:
| Risk Type | Description |
|---|---|
| Timing Risk | Supply won't arrive in time to meet demand |
| Depletion Risk | Earlier consumption exhausted available supply |
| Expiry Risk | Kits will expire before they can be used |
| Constraint Risk | Production capacity limits the available quantity |
Risk Analysis
For each identified risk:
- Kit -- Which kit is at risk
- Country -- Where the shortfall may occur
- Month -- When the risk is projected
- Quantity -- Size of the potential shortfall
- Reason -- Root cause analysis
Using Risk Insights
Risk assessment helps you take proactive action:
- Timing risks -- Adjust production start dates or shipping methods
- Depletion risks -- Increase production quantities or add runs
- Expiry risks -- Adjust production timing or reduce batch sizes
- Constraint risks -- Review production capacity or add manufacturing slots
Cost Analysis
If you configured kit costs in the wizard, the Cost Analysis view provides financial projections.
Cost Breakdown
| View | Description |
|---|---|
| By Kit | Costs allocated to each kit |
| By Country | Costs allocated to each country |
| By Time Period | Monthly, quarterly, and yearly summaries |
Cost Metrics
- Kit Costs -- Based on kit unit costs and projected consumption
- Production Costs -- Aggregate costs by manufacturing run
- Total Trial Cost -- Overall supply chain cost projection
For In-Progress Trials
When actual data is available:
- Actual costs -- Based on confirmed consumption
- Projected costs -- Forecast for remaining trial period
- Variance analysis -- Actual vs. planned cost comparison
Working with Analytics
Refreshing Forecasts
Analytics automatically update when you:
- Modify trial configuration in the wizard
- Enter new actual enrollment or inventory data
- Change scenario parameters
Exporting Data
Export analytics for offline analysis or sharing:
- PDF Reports -- Formatted summaries for stakeholders
- Excel/CSV -- Detailed data for further analysis
Comparing Scenarios
Use the scenario selector to compare forecasts across different trial configurations. This helps you evaluate the impact of different assumptions on supply requirements.
Next Steps
- How Demand Forecasting Works -- Learn what drives your forecasts and how to improve accuracy
- Scenario Planning -- Create alternative scenarios to test different assumptions
- Managing Drug Substances -- Plan upstream material requirements