Managing Drug Substances

Overview

The Drug Substances feature in Prognosis helps you forecast upstream material requirements. By defining the relationship between drug substances, drug products, and clinical trials, you can calculate the total quantity of active ingredients needed to support your trial portfolio.

Key Concepts

Drug Substance

The active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) or raw material that goes into your drug products. This is the upstream material you need to procure or manufacture.

Examples:

• Active compound (e.g., "ABC-123 API")
• Excipients or critical raw materials
• Reference standards

Drug Product

The finished dosage form that contains the drug substance. This is what gets packaged into kits and dispensed to patients.

Examples:

• Tablets (e.g., "ABC-123 100mg Tablet")
• Capsules
• Injectables
• Solutions

Relationship Chain

Drug Substance → Drug Product → Kit → Treatment Arm → Clinical Trial

Prognosis traces this relationship chain to calculate how much drug substance is needed based on patient demand in your trials.

Planning a DS/DP Plan

A DS/DP plan sits upstream of your trials. The trials decide the lots; the plan decides which DS and DP batches make them. The breadcrumb at the top shows the plan's name and leads back to the list of plans.

Choosing the lots

Click + in the Trial Lots column to open Select Trial Lots. Search for a trial on the left, or narrow the list by compound (set per kit in the trial's Kits step). On the right, search by lot number, kit or compound, and choose lots by when they must be released: each lot shows its release and expiry dates. A lot that another DS/DP plan already uses carries an Also in tag naming that plan, so the same lot is not planned twice by accident.

Lot quantities are always counted in kits. Lot cards, the lot list and Lot Allocation also say what one kit holds, for example 210 kits (60 tablets each), from the kit's Amount and Unit Type in the trial's Kits step.

Allocating DP to a lot

Drag from a DP batch to a lot to open Lot Allocation for that one lot. Set how many DP units go into one kit, the Lot yield and the quantity to allocate (leave it on Auto to fill the lot's demand; when other DP batches already supply the lot, Auto fills only what they leave, and the coverage counts them). The dialog says when the lot ends up short or over. Lot yield is the share of the allocated DP units that ends up in the lot's kits after packaging and labelling. It belongs to that lot only, so an early lot at 90% and a later one at 99% each keep their own, and is separate from the expected manufacturing yield used while a DP batch is still planned or in progress. The link on the canvas shows the yield next to the quantity.

Each lot card follows the DS and DP cards: its trial and lot type in the header, the lot number and kit type, its depot, when it is released (rel.) and expires (exp.), and the kits it needs. Double-click a lot card to open its Lot Allocation. When several DP batches supply the lot, choose which one first. A lot with no DP yet tells you to drag one onto it.

Batch quantities and commitments

Usable released quantity is the whole quantity QC released for use, after samples and actual losses, before any DS → DP or DP → lot connections. Include material already committed on those connections. Saving, editing or deleting a connection changes the committed quantity; it does not change the released quantity.

The batch card shows when the batch is released (rel.) and when it expires (exp., or retest for a drug substance), then its usable and allocated quantities. A hold or a shortfall appears only when there is one. A released batch with no usable released quantity entered says usable qty not entered instead of showing 0: it supplies nothing until you edit the batch and enter it. Free = usable − allocated − additional holds. For example, 900 released vials with 500 allocated and 50 held leave 350 free. A hold is material kept aside outside the connections; reduce the hold when you move that material onto a connection. An overcommitted plan shows a shortfall and offers no free stock.

For planned and in-progress DP batches, usable supply is planned output adjusted for expected manufacturing yield, minus samples. Completed and quarantined batches use actual produced output minus samples. Released batches use the entered usable released quantity: manufacturing yield and sampling are not deducted again. Lot yield still determines how many kits an allocation produces. DS uses planned or received material before release, and the actual usable quantity after release. Consumed, failed and rejected batches supply no new demand.

Risks checks the planned connections. Optimize also checks when each batch becomes available and expires before using its free capacity. Inventory reports released stock; future planned stock remains separate. Timeline bars show capacity after additional holds and before connections. Compatible DS units are converted to one scale; quantity edits are converted back to the stored batch total, preserving holds and sampling.

A batch whose quantities use units that can't be compared, such as a hold in mL on a batch counted in kg, or a DS → DP connection in a unit its source can't be measured in, supplies nothing until the units are corrected. Its card and Risks say which units clash, and the Timeline lists it among the hidden batches. A connection's unit must be comparable with its DS batch's when it is saved.

Risks

Risks, at the top left of the plan, checks the plan as you edit it: lots allocated below or above their demand (after each lot's yield), DP batches allocated past what they hold, and DS batches used past their quantity. Risks are hidden when you open a plan, so the canvas shows only your batches and lots; the button shows how many there are. Click Risks to mark each card with its coverage and open the Risks drawer, where Navigate highlights the batch or lot. Problems also appear as colored chips next to the button, and All lots covered when there are none; click a chip to open the drawer at that kind of problem. Click Risks again to hide them.

Optimize

Recorded DS consumption stays attached to its source batch. DS already used by existing DP comes from those connections; correct the connection itself if the quantity or source is wrong.

Click Optimize to build the plan forward. Prognosis credits your existing DS and DP batches against the selected lots' demand first, then recommends new batches for what is left. Confirm a few assumptions in Build recommended DS/DP plan and choose Generate recommendations. The recommended batches appear in cyan on both tabs as a preview. Nothing is saved yet: the Optimized plan preview strip at the top of the plan holds three choices:

• Review & save opens Implement recommendations, which lists the batches to create and every lot connection on a saved DP batch that would change, with its quantity before and after. Saved connections change only where the preview tops up a lot from free stock, or where you changed a lot's allocated quantity in the assumptions; untouched lots keep their connections. Clear Update lot connections on saved DP batches to save the new batches and leave saved connections as they are; the lots those connections would have covered then stay short, and Risks shows the gap. Save plan creates recommended batches as planned, records entered existing batches with their full quantities, and saves the listed connection changes. If a saved batch or its connections changed during the preview, regenerate the recommendations before saving.
• Edit assumptions reopens the assumptions to regenerate.
• Discard clears the preview without saving anything.

Production plan

The Timeline tab's Production plan section is the plan as a table: every DS and DP batch still to be made or used, recommended ones included, in manufacture order. Each row shows the status, quantity, manufacture, ready and expiry dates, what the batch feeds and any flags:

Consumed, rejected and failed batches are left out. Download CSV exports the same table.

Keeping up with trial forecasts

The plan stays on the trial forecast it was built against. When a newer forecast changes lots this plan supplies, or no longer recommends a lot you selected, the plan shows Forecast update available with Review changes. The review lists the trial inputs that changed (with the old value struck through), the lots that change and what your DP allocations would leave short. Your DP after this shows, per lot, how many kits your current allocations would leave it short or over. What happens next says in plain words what accepting does to your DP allocations and, when a lot ends up short or over, to click Risks after accepting and double-click the lot to adjust it. Accept changes moves the plan to the new forecast. Keep current plan changes nothing for now; the update is offered again the next time you open the plan. Ask a teammate tags someone who can see the trial; they get a notification and the note stays in the plan's Activity.

For a trial that has already started, recommended lots move a little each day: production cannot start before today, so the forecast recalculated for a later day shifts their release dates. The review shows such a lot as Moved N days later rather than as one lot removed and another added, and accepting moves its DP allocations and depot placement with it. A selected lot that only moved stays selected without asking. Allocations to lots the forecast no longer needs are detached and need reassigning, and a selected lot it no longer needs is listed under Selected lots no longer in the forecast. It leaves your selection only when you accept. Keep current plan keeps it, but the plan then stays on the earlier forecast for that trial until you accept an update.

If the forecast run a plan was reviewed against can no longer be loaded, the plan shows Reviewed forecast unavailable for that trial and hides lots until it is resolved; your batches and connections are kept. Click Load latest forecast in that notice. It runs the trial's forecast if needed and compares it with your plan: unchanged lots come straight back, and changes open in the review first. If the trial can't be forecast, for example because a setup step is incomplete, the notice names what to fix.

Adding a Drug Substance

Navigate to Drug Substances

1. Click Drug Substances in the sidebar
2. Click Add Drug Substance

Configure Properties

Save Your Work

Click Save to create the drug substance. You can now link it to drug products.

Adding Drug Products

Drug products link drug substances to clinical trial kits.

Navigate to Drug Products

1. From the Drug Substances page, click on a substance
2. Click Add Drug Product or click an existing product to edit

Configure Properties

Link to Trials

Associate the drug product with clinical trials:

1. In the Associated Trials section, click Add Trial
2. Select the trial(s) that use this drug product
3. Map the drug product to the appropriate kit(s) in each trial

Understanding the Calculation

Prognosis calculates drug substance requirements by tracing demand from patients back to raw materials.

The Calculation Flow

1. Patient Demand — How many patients, how many visits, how many kits per visit?
2. Kit Consumption — How many kits of each type are needed?
3. Drug Product Need — How much drug product is in each kit?
4. Substance Requirement — How much substance is in each drug product?
5. Yield Adjustment — Account for manufacturing losses

Example Calculation

Consider a simple trial:

• 100 patients
• 10 visits per patient, 1 kit per visit
• Each kit contains 30 tablets
• Each tablet contains 100mg of drug substance
• 10% yield loss during tablet manufacturing

Base Kit Demand:     100 patients × 10 visits × 1 kit = 1,000 kits
Tablet Demand:       1,000 kits × 30 tablets = 30,000 tablets
Substance Demand:    30,000 tablets × 100mg = 3,000,000mg = 3kg
Yield-Adjusted:      3kg ÷ (1 - 0.10) = 3.33kg needed

Prognosis performs this calculation automatically across all treatment arms, kits, and trials.

Substance Analytics

The Analytics view aggregates requirements across your entire trial portfolio.

Trial-Level Breakdown

See how much substance is needed for each trial:

Overall Summary

See total requirements across all trials:

Using the Analytics

These projections help you:

• Plan procurement — Know how much API to order
• Schedule manufacturing — Align substance production with trial timelines
• Manage inventory — Track substance levels across products
• Budget planning — Estimate material costs

Best Practices

Accurate Input Data

The quality of your forecast depends on accurate inputs:

• Substance per unit — Verify with formulation specifications
• Yield loss — Use historical manufacturing data
• Trial linkages — Ensure all relevant trials are connected

Regular Updates

Keep your drug substance data current:

• Update when formulations change
• Adjust yield loss based on actual manufacturing performance
• Add new trials as they're created

Multi-Product Planning

For substances used in multiple products:

• Create each drug product separately
• Link each product to relevant trials
• The analytics will aggregate across all products

Portfolio View

Use the Analytics view to see substance requirements across your entire portfolio, not just individual trials. This helps with:

• Long-term procurement planning
• Capacity allocation
• Budget forecasting

Advanced Features

Yield Loss Adjustment

The yield-adjusted requirement accounts for manufacturing losses:

Adjusted Requirement = Base Requirement ÷ (1 - Yield Loss %)

This ensures you procure enough substance to produce the required quantity of drug product after accounting for typical manufacturing losses.

Multi-Trial Aggregation

When a drug substance is used across multiple trials:

1. Each trial's requirements are calculated independently
2. Requirements are summed across all linked trials
3. The total gives you a portfolio-level view

Timeline Considerations

While the current analytics provide total requirements, consider:

• When substance is needed (align with trial timelines)
• Substance shelf life (don't procure too early)
• Production lead times (work backwards from trial needs)

Next Steps

• How Substance Forecasting Works — Learn what drives your substance requirements and how to improve accuracy
• Advanced Features — Explore additional capabilities in Prognosis