Introduction to Prognosis

What is Prognosis?

Prognosis is a modern clinical trial supply chain forecasting platform built for pharmaceutical and biotech teams. It transforms complex trial planning into an intuitive, guided experience—helping you forecast patient demand, plan production, manage inventory, and identify supply risks before they impact your trial.

Whether you're planning a new study or managing an in-progress trial with real enrollment data, Prognosis provides the analytics and insights you need to make confident supply chain decisions.

Who is Prognosis For?

Prognosis is designed for cross-functional teams involved in clinical trial supply:

• Clinical Supply Chain Managers — Plan production runs, manage depot networks, and ensure timely kit delivery
• Clinical Operations Teams — Configure trial protocols, track enrollment, and coordinate across countries
• Manufacturing & Production Planners — Schedule production batches based on forecasted demand
• Finance & Budget Analysts — Estimate trial costs and optimize resource allocation

Core Capabilities

Trial Configuration Wizard

Set up your complete trial in minutes using our guided 8-step wizard:

1. Countries & Depots — Define your distribution network and shipping lead times
2. Recruitment — Configure enrollment timelines and patient targets by country
3. Kits — Define kit types, quantities, shelf life, and costs
4. Label Groups — Organize countries by labeling requirements
5. Treatment Arms — Configure randomization, visit schedules, and kit dispensing
6. Cohorts — Manage patient cohorts with specific enrollment windows
7. Production — Set manufacturing constraints, overage, and lot configurations
8. Actuals — Track real-time enrollment and inventory data for in-progress trials

Demand Analytics

Once your trial is configured, Prognosis generates comprehensive forecasts:

• Patient Demand — Monthly breakdown of kit requirements by country and treatment arm
• Production Planning — Recommended manufacturing runs with optimal timing
• Inventory Projections — Track stock levels across your depot network
• Risk Assessment — Identify potential supply shortfalls before they occur
• Cost Analysis — Estimate trial costs by kit, country, and time period

Scenario Planning

Compare multiple supply strategies side-by-side:

• Clone existing trials to create "what-if" scenarios
• Adjust parameters like enrollment rates, production frequency, or overage
• Compare analytics across scenarios to find the optimal approach

Drug Substance Planning

Forecast upstream material requirements:

• Link drug substances to drug products and clinical trials
• Calculate total substance requirements accounting for yield loss
• Plan manufacturing across your entire product portfolio

Key Benefits

Speed

Configure a complete trial forecast in minutes, not days. Our guided wizard captures all necessary inputs while our algorithms handle the complex calculations.

Accuracy

Industry-validated forecasting algorithms account for enrollment patterns, visit schedules, lead times, shelf life, and production constraints—providing reliable projections you can trust.

Flexibility

Whether you're planning a simple single-country study or a complex global trial with multiple treatment arms and cohorts, Prognosis adapts to your needs.

Visibility

Real-time dashboards give everyone on your team a single source of truth for trial supply planning, eliminating spreadsheet chaos and version control issues.

Proactive Risk Management

Identify supply risks months in advance. Understand not just that a shortage may occur, but why—whether it's a timing issue, production constraint, or inventory depletion.

How It Works

For New Trials (Planning Phase)

1. Configure — Walk through the wizard to define your trial parameters
2. Forecast — Generate demand projections using configurable enrollment patterns
3. Analyze — Review production recommendations and identify risks
4. Optimize — Create scenarios to compare different supply strategies
5. Execute — Use the forecast to guide your supply chain decisions

For In-Progress Trials

When your trial begins enrollment, Prognosis seamlessly transitions to incorporate actual data:

1. Track Actuals — Enter real enrollment numbers and inventory levels
2. Update Forecasts — The system automatically recalculates projections based on actual data
3. Monitor Progress — Compare actual vs. planned enrollment and adjust as needed
4. Reforecast — Generate updated supply recommendations based on current trial status

Getting Started

Ready to start forecasting? Continue to the next section to learn how to access Prognosis and set up your first trial.